Starting from somewhere around the middle of 2011 when the mood of a nation was captured by a frail old man Anna Hazare the anger and frustration of the voters, especially the youngsters peaked around mid-2012 into a more visible, organised movement against corruption. By end 2012 the Delhi rape jolted every parent out of their TV couches and as 2013 dawned they were backing their kids, grand kids to go out and stand up against injustice, corruption, poverty, communalism, etc. From then on events speeded such that the Cong and UPA just didn’t have a clue what to do. They were trying to climb a speeding train while the BJP and Modi had already boarded the train and the only option was to get crushed underneath the juggernaut. The euphoria was high, and Modi tapped into that with 3 masterstrokes. 1) He was a gifted orator and could catch the imagination of the crowd and communicate brilliantly 2) He spoke the language of development which appealed to every voter 3) He talked of a dream which was sold at a huge premium.
The downside was that the expectations and the bar was set so high that anybody with a modicum of understanding India would know that it was herculean and difficult to achieve. The biggest error, if one may call it that, is that Modi seemed to look at 2024 elections as a target while the actual election was in 2019. In what can be called a Freudian slip he told a student in an interaction on children’s day in 2014 that he can dream about becoming PM in 2024. Nobody least of all Modi would say that he has met these expectations but given the challenges, the limited time the Modi govt has performed remarkably well as we can see here and not in any order.
Defence:
It was clear that India, including I dare say the ABV govt, following the Nehruvian policy had always pussyfooted and vacillated when it came to reacting to a terror strike. Even if they did, they preferred to keep quiet – that’s like winking at the girl you love in darkness. Modi changed that normal with surgical strikes in Myanmar, Pakistan and openly announcing it in a presser giving little chance to Pakistan for a narrative. With the air strikes he further raised the bar and called the nuclear bluff and told the world that business was not as usual.
He showed courage in closing the Rafale deal by making it a Govt to Govt deal which even the previous govts could have done if they believed that defence preparedness was dangerously inadequate. Similar deals with USA, Russia meant that a humongous number of decisions were taken which were languishing for decades. That some of these may actually fructify even post 2024 is a fact but he broke the chain and opened the doors.
While nobody can claim to have got everything right or accomplished everything 5 years is too short in defence and his efforts will be remembered by future generations.
Strategy:
Talking to many people – and unfortunately, I wish I could expand more on this – the one thing they have all said about the man is – nothing is done without a strategy and plan. Based on reports one has heard about how the capabilities of ISRO have been harnessed in far reaching ways than before especially for defence and security of the nation.
Be it the Jan Dhan accounts, linking of Aadhar to bank accounts, banning mobiles in meetings and the announcement of Demonetisation there was a method and plan that was thought through every single step. It is easy to nit pick on slip ups in such large-scale projects.
Subsidy:
History had told us and every politician, commentator had vouched that touching a subsidy like LPG would be a political hot potato and end careers. But Modi with a masterstroke of appealing to the people to voluntarily give up subsidies defanged this monster and after that it was easy.
The govt then used this to give connections to the rural populace. The one issue the poor face is that cash flow is the challenge that everybody faces even if the subsidy is remitted into their bank accounts directly. This issue could dent the success that this scheme may bring the govt.
While some BJP governments have talked of farm loan waivers Modi must be credited for not falling into this trap even if it has hurt the govt. The results in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh were clearly influenced by this to a large extent.
Diplomacy:
A more appropriate name could be called Huglomacy where hugging became the signature of his style. While nobody can ascertain the benefits the one thing one be sure of is that this action does break barriers in most cases. However much his foreign travels were criticised, those were mostly sour grapes I would say. The level of support that India obtained across the world compared to before has been far higher. We have managed to build bridges with Saudi, Iran, Israel, Dubai, Qatar without getting hyphenated with their internal issues, religious issues and Pakistan. The contradictions in these relationships were humongous but India managed to bridge them excellently. The invite of Mrs Sushma Swaraj as the Guest of Honour for the first time in 50 years and that too even after the terror attack/air strike speaks volumes of the bridges built.
Undoubtedly foreign policy and diplomacy have been the most successful of the Modi govt even if there were fly’s in the ointment like China. However, nobody can accuse Modi of not trying. Inviting all the heads of state for the swearing in and then the sudden stop over in Pakistan were brilliant decisions. The latter especially was fraught with as a security nightmare, but Modi managed to pull it off. While his critics will point out the failures of these actions, the important aspect is that he proved that no matter what, the old strategy of loud protests and back to talks were of no use. If Modi had taken a tough approach from day one the entire world would have berated him. But today nobody can point a finger that he didn’t try the Nehruvian methods.
Digital:
Promoting a cashless economy, going in for digitisation of records and processes, pushing the envelope on online transactions – not always economic – to encompass even mundane things like appointments with officers and ministers in Delhi he brought in a huge amount of transparency and change in the status quo. This is another big feather in his cap though once again the economic results will begin to show post 2022 in a more visible manner.
Farmers:
This is another political hot potato that he has not touched much to shake the status quo. There have been profound changes be it neem coating, insurance, soil cards etc but this is a very long work in process. The benefits are linked to digitisation, agricultural reforms like the way farmers today sell, contract farming, weaning the farmers out of the subsidy debt trap, which more often that not is personal than pure agrarian crisis. That most politicians classify themselves as agriculturists and then pay no taxes is also a part of the problem. Any govt will need at least 10 to 15 years of sustained effort to bring about change and here there is a beginning.
Jobs:
At one level the widely held perspective is that there aren’t enough jobs which has a ring of truth to it because gone are the days when an IT company picked up employees like a vacuum cleaner from campuses. As long as you were human – they gave you a job. The industry has plateaued, matured, globally there are resistances and so the visible jobs have reduced. It is another matter that these same IT companies kept riding the coolie train only to suddenly find that the world has changed, and the techies had to be really that – techies, not glorified coolies. If these reduction in jobs pertained to labourers, blue collar workers then nobody would be shouting, and media wouldn’t even know about it. Just like there was no protest when millions of blue-collar jobs in USA went to China and protests started only when white collar jobs went to India. The people who have a voice need to get hurt for it to become news.
Fact also is that the formal employment in India has never been high. Self-employment has been the biggest job creator however much you may mock pakoda economics because you hail from a privileged background. With mechanisation and economies of scale as the only way to increase farm outputs, the REAL jobs to be created are for the labour class. For this the manufacturing sector needs to grow. If anything, the inability to push manufacturing faster is what can be called the real failure of this govt. But unless labour and land laws change these would continue to be challenges and a Modi 2.0 will need to address this on priority.
Ayodhya:
Yawn…. This is a horse that’s been flogged to death. The 20 something of 1991 is now hitting the 50’s and wants to retire. Those born then wouldn’t know a damn about its history or geography. This is an issue more in the media and the older generation who have nothing better to do. Is this an emotional issue? Yes. But no law can resolve a centuries old issue with any kind of logic. Hopefully the mediation will bring about a result because THAT is the only way this can be resolved, and this ghost buried. Based on what kind of Modi 2.0 we get in terms of numbers this may finally see a closure.
Picture Credit: Rishabh Srivastava
Credit and Source of Original Article: Ravindra Vasisht
