Indian Options in Afghanistan

US withdrawal and Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has been Swift and naturally, being the neighbouring nation that has borne the brunt of Islamic terror for decades, Indians are worried. To understand the Present, Geography and History both have to be understood.

Brief History and Geography

Afghanistan was for centuries, before Islamic takeover, a part of Bharat. For centuries the territory was called Kashmir -Gandhardesh. A part of Gandhar, Taxila (TakshShilla) is now a part of Pakistan after the drawing of Durand Line. Until it was a part of Bharat, it was a conduit of exporting Hindu culture and later Buddhism. With trade routes, prosperity came to Bharat. With the advent of Islamic invasions, decline of trade routes began and slowly Afghanistan turned Islamic. Still the ties with India continued. Afghan kings at various times were invaders( Ghaznavi) , Babur made Kabul his base before attacking Bharat , while also, many Afghan kings sought refuge in Bharat ,eg Afghan commander in Maharana pratap’s army . Mughals and Afghans remained at war, with Afghans capturing Kashmir from Mughals. The rule of Afghans was cruel, very cruel to Kashmiri Hindus, Sikhs and even Kashmiri Muslims were not spared. Kashmiri Pandits approached Maharaja Ranjit Singh who invaded Kashmir and defeated Afghan rulers, and extended his kingdom to parts of Afghanistan. Sikh rule was followed by Dogra rule and then by Accession to India.

Till Independence of India, India had open access to Afghanistan. Post Independence J&K state shared its border with Afghanistan. J&K state had access via Gilgit Baltistan to central Asian republics and Present day Xinxiang. In October 1947 Pakistan army, in guise of Tribal raiders Attacked J&K, and J&K acceded to India on 26 October 1947.

A Pakistan supported Gilgit mutiny enabled Pakistan to invade Gilgit Baltistan. An UN Mandated ceasefire, effective Midnight 31 December 1948, led to Pakistan occupying the very strategic Territory of Gilgit Baltistan.

The occupation of Gilgit Baltistan ensured that India lost access to Afghanistan, Central Asian republics and routes beyond that. Pakistan gained Geopolitical advantage due to its access to Afghanistan and gained stature as ally of the western world especially US. India got isolated and has had no locus standi in the Afghanistan area.

Isolation of India in Pak-Af theatre

The policy makers of India considered the territory of Gilgit Baltistan as a lost territory, never realising its strategic importance. Events of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Exiting of Soviet Union, Rule of Mujahideen, and Occupation of Afghanistan by US – all these had no Indian role as India had no Land access to this region. Pakistan gained considerable advantage. Though India had no role in Pak -Afghan-US-Soviet Theatre, India suffered because of Islamic terror, especially in J&K.

Options for India  

So what options does India have at present?

In the present time, unlike before, India has to factor in the Pakistani- China nexus and the Building of CPEC by China in Pakistan occupied Gilgit Baltistan.

Millitary option

Many Political leaders are advocating ‘Indian boots’ in Afghanistan. For those advocating this option, first question is with land access of India cut off, how would India sends its army to Afghanistan. Right now, the access of India to Afghanistan is Via Arabian Sea, to Chabahar Port in Iran, then Via Irani highways to Afghanistan. This access is only for humanitarian aid. We have no direct air access to Afghanistan over Pakistan or Gilgit Baltistan. So how does India get her boots there?

Ok, if we did manage to get our boots in there somehow, what are we pitting our army against?

The Taliban are a fighting fit, well armed, well trained army that uses Guerrilla tactics. The land is their ally. They melted away when US attacked Afghanistan and emerged when they chose. For 20 years a numerically stronger and advanced army could not defeat Taliban. Our army, though the bravest, will have a well entrenched enemy, fired ideologically, with local support. It is therefore an irrational and ill intentioned proposal to send our Army to Afghanistan.

The present multi layered  dimensions in Afghanistan

US -Taliban peace deal basically is a deal for safe exit of US forces. Many are questioning the rapid and easy takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban, including Kabul. For decades, the narrative on Afghanistan has been Kabul centric, with exhaustive material on Kabul centric politics. The hinterlands where Taliban melted away were never a part of narrative. The Taliban could not have emerged in its present state without local support. This support would be clan and ideology based, and local women would also be supporting it.

The silent majority never voiced their opinion. The US was considered a Non believer, a non Islamic   outsider occupying an Islamic land. Taliban are considered the pure Islamic force that has defeated US, an ally of Israel. Those scrambling to leave are those who supported US forces and the regime it installed. Many who are leaving are genuine non supporters of the Ideology of Taliban.

Taliban is a Sunni organisation, which prosecuted Shias over the years. Iran is a Shia nation and is wary of a Shia persecution. Hazara Shias, natives of Afghanistan, are persecuted both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The fall out of Shia persecution in Afghanistan will have a fall out in Shia population of Kashmir, Ladakh, Lucknow, Hyderabad and other such Shia populated regions.

China will be wary of Taliban as it is battling a restive Sunni Muslim Uyghur population. China does not allow direct unchecked influx of Pakistanis into China via the Karokaram highway. East Turkistan or Xinxiang is now Adopting Salafi Islam that advocates a pan Islamic Caliphate. Taliban, though Deobandi, have Cross fertilised with Salafi Islam. This dimension has to be constantly scrutinised.

How the Pakistan -China nexus develops will need constant watching.

Iran is a Shia nation, and Shias are in cross hairs of Taliban. How this ancient Shia-Sunni sectarian strife endures in a developing Iran-China partnership needs to be studied.

The central Asian republics, which were controlled by Soviet Union are all Islamic. The   Republics are not radicalised. Russia is battling rising  Chinese influence in Central Asia.How these Factors develop post Taliban takeover are going to be very important for India.

For India, the fall out is eminent. There will be a rise in terror activities. 1980’s saw the rise of Islamic terror in Kashmir. By 1990’s it peaked.  Hijacking of Air India flight to Kandahar is a reminder.

At present, removal of art 370, re organisation of J&K into 2 union territories makes it easier to handle the fallout. India of 2021 is different from India of 1980, 1990 and early 2000. In 1994, India in a hostile environment, managed to scuttle Pakistani designs on Kashmir. In 2021, with a robust foreign policy, it is better equipped to handle the Kashmir question.  

At the time of Independence, Kashmir was pre-supposed to be an eventual part of an Islamic Caliphate rising from Middle East, to Central Asia, to Turkey. That idea did not materialise, but off and on, the idea of an Islamic Kashmir as a part of a caliphate is floated. It is sure to be floated again. Turkey in its attempts to Reignite an Islamic Caliphate will in all probability tries to re ignite the Kashmir issue which has been on a back burner.

The Indian Government has done what it can and should in present circumstances. It has, through deft diplomatic manoeuvring, evacuated its embassy staff and Indian nationals via Millitary aircrafts. It has started special e-visas for Afghan Hindu and Sikh to seek refuge in India. Over the last few years, it has managed to get a foothold in the Afghan Psyche. India is not looked upon unfavourably in Afghanistan due to these efforts.Sections of Afghans recognise the pre Islamic ties of Afghanistan with Bharat.

The ancient cultural roots of Afghanistan with India do not allow India to abandon its stake in Afghanistan. Our ancient treasures, monuments, temples, Gurudwaras, forts etc are in Afghanistan. Bamiyan Buddha statues were demolished by Taliban. India must initiate efforts that Pre Islamic Treasures are not destroyed. India will not officially Recognise Taliban, but a communication has to be maintained.

Giving asylum to Afghans who helped Indian aid efforts should not be opposed as this gives India a small foothold in Afghanistan. Right now India has to wait and watch. It has to prevent escalation of domestic terror activities. And the nation has to prepare for an eventual change of LOC and reclaiming of Gilgit Baltistan.

Author: Nidhi Bahuguna can be reached on Twitter

Twitter:  @vinirish

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